在国内外现有研究基础之上,提出退耕还林背景下各推动力对农村劳动力转移的直接和间接影响机制的理论假设。运用结构方程的方法,以2010年陕西省吴起县190户农户调研数据为样本,对假设理论框架进行了经验验证。研究发现:农业生产不仅对农村劳动力转移产生负向直接作用,同时在家庭特征、退耕还林对劳动力转移的间接影响中起到中介作用;从影响的总效果而言,农业生产、家庭特征、退耕还林对劳动力转移的总影响分别是-0.57、0.69和0.34。此外,结合研究区现行退耕还林成果巩固政策,提出了促进吴起县生态恢复和经济发展的政策建议。
Based on literature review, the paper proposed a testable theoretical framework which including the di- rect and indirect pathways of the influencing factors on rural labor transfer in the background of Sloping Land Con- version Program (SLCP). Using Structural Equation Modeling, the framework was tested with household survey da- ta from Wuqi, Shaanxi in 2010. The empirical analysis provided proof for the theoretical assumptions and it is found that agricultural production not only has a direct negative influence on rural labor transfer, but also is the me- dium in the indirect influence pathways of household characteristic and the SLCP on labor transfer. And the total ef- fects of agricultural production, household characteristic and the SLCP on labor transfer are -0.57, 0.69 and 0.34 re- spectively. The policy advices are given to promote the ecological restoration and economic development in Wuqi.