自WTO成立以来。中国农产品出口遭遇了大量技术性贸易壁垒,给出口企业、相关农户以及农产品价格稳定带来不利影响。文章通过建立基于多边贸易阻力的两阶段重力模型来定量分析1995~2011年间技术性贸易壁垒的贸易效应。实证结论显示:不同的技术性贸易壁垒会具有不同的贸易效应,虽然TBT和SPS均显著减低了贸易广度,但SPS的限制效应要强于TBT,而且,当TBT降低贸易深度时,SPS却能有效提升贸易深度。另外,文章将中国农产品出口贸易伙伴分为发达国家及发展中国家进行分类比较分析,还对美国、欧盟及日本设置的壁垒进行了比较分析。
China's agricultural exports have suffered a great deal of technical trade barriers since the foundation of WTO in 1995. China's related export companies, farmers and agricultural prices have been adversely affected. Through the establishment of the two-stage gravity model based on the multilateral trade resistance, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the trade effects of technical trade barriers from 1995 to 2011. The empirical results show that different technical trade barriers have different trade effects, although TBT and SPS significantly reduce trade breadth, but the effect of SPS is stronger than that of TBT. Moreover, TBT lowers trade depth, but SPS is able to effectively enhance trade depth. In addition, the paper divides China's trade partners into developed and developing countries, and makes a comparative analysis of U.S., EU and Japan.