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全球大气降水中年平均氚浓度的恢复模型

期刊名称：地质论评
时间：0
页码：407-418
语言：中文
分类：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
作者机构：[1]南京大学水科学系,南京210093
相关基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目（编号40872155 40725010 41030746）; 国家重点基础研究发展计划资助（编号2010CB428803）的成果
相关项目：水文地质学

关键词：氚浓度, 大气降水, 因子分析, 最小二乘法, 全球, tritium concentration, precipitation, factor analysis, least square method, global

中文摘要：

氚作为一种天然的环境同位素可广泛应用于水文地质领域,由于实测资料的稀缺,极大地限制了氚的应用。为了能够解决这一问题,选用国际原子能机构最近发布的1960～2005年南纬50°至北纬70°区域内氚值实测资料,应用因子分析方法建立了全球大气降水中年平均氚浓度的恢复模型。选取了三个任意典型站点对采用＂直接求参法＂所建模型进行了验证和一个任选站点对采用＂间接求参法＂所建模型进行了验证,然后以南京站为例对模型进行了具体应用。因子分析应用于全球氚值恢复具有物理意义明确、适用范围广泛、操作方法简单、影响因素少,很好地恢复出氚值变化曲线的峰值和形态等特点。分析结果表明全球模型输出结果与实测值吻合,不但具有全球适用性,而且在一定程度上解决了原全球模型精度欠佳的问题,为资料稀缺和无资料地区1960～2005年大气降水中年平均氚浓度恢复提供了一种新方法。同时对模型应用中出现的问题也提出了解决方案。

英文摘要：

Tritium,as a natural environmental isotope,can be broadly applied in hydrogeology.The application of tritium is greatly limited by the scarcity observations.We have developed,selecting the International Atomic Energy Agency（IAEA） tritium data set in area from 50 S to 70 N,a modified global model for predicting the annual mean tritium concentration in atmospheric precipitation by using factor analysis method.Three random representative stations have been chosen to verify the model with direct calibrated parameters,and one station for the model with interpolated parameters.Moreover,Nanjing station has been taken as an example to explain the application of the global model.The application of factor analysis method for recovering the tritium concentration in rain has its own obvious characteristics,such as its definite meaning in physics,extensive range in application,simple process in operation,few variables in influence and well modeling the shape and peak value of the history curve.Through the analysis of the results,it shows the tritium contents in precipitation restored by the global model fit the observations very well.It also indicates that the new model is not only appropriate for the global but also improves the accuracy to some extent.In short,it provides a new idea to reconstruct the tritium concentration in atmospheric precipitation in scarcity even no data area between 1960 and 2005.However,problems of application have also been proposed,discussed and put to solutions.

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