中文摘要：

使用相关分析和因子分析等方法，探讨了前期太平洋海温对主汛期副高指数的影响。相关分析发现：海温对副高各指数的影响存在季节和区域上的变化，海温变化主要影响副高的面积和强度指数，对西伸脊点的影响次之，对脊线位置的影响比对北界位置显著。从各季节海温对副高5个指数（脊线位置、北界位置、西伸脊点、面积、强度）集合整体的线性拟合能力上看，秋、冬季海温较春季效果稍好，赤道中东太平洋及北美西海岸海温对副高指数的影响较西北太平洋显著。因子分析结果发现：前期各季节海温第1公共因子主要反映了赤道中东太平洋与西太平洋海温的反相变化关系，该公共因子与主汛期副高指数相关最显著，且较好地反映海温与副高各指数的相关特点，其它公共因子与副高指数相关性均较弱。年代际变化分析表明：1970年代末以前，海温变化使La Nina事件易为出现、夏季副高偏弱偏东、面积偏小、位置偏北，1980年代以后则相反。

英文摘要：

With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of proceeding Pacific SST on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SST on subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. SST variation mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. From the ability of SST in fitting the whole set of five subtropical high indexes, it is known that the effect is better in autumn and winter than in spring. It is also found that the effect of SST in the area of central and eastern equatorial Pacific and west coast of North America is better than the one in north-west Pacific area. The results of factor analysis revealed that the first proceeding common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SST variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlate better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SST was conducive to the emergence of the La Nifia event before the end of 1970s, so in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, this case bears just the opposite characteristics.