中文摘要：

预估未来极端天气事件致灾危险性对于评估气候变化对人类经济和社会的潜在风险具有极其重要的意义。本研究采用PREClS模式模拟的气候情景数据，选取年均暴雨日数、年均最大三日降水量、高程、坡度和距河湖距离五个指标，对SRESB2情景下未来安徽省县域尺度洪涝致灾危险性时空格局进行预估。结果表明：相对于现阶段（1981－2010），未来安徽省年均暴雨日数和最大三日降水量总体上呈现北部减少、南部增加的趋势；各时段安徽省洪灾危险性等级由北向南大致呈逐渐升高的趋势：未来安徽省洪灾危险性格局变化主要发生在近期（2011－2040）和中期（2041一2070）；到中期时段，安徽省洪灾危险性处于5级的县域个数和面积百分比分别为16个和17．87％，是现阶段的2倍和2．24倍。研究结果可为气候变化背景下该地区洪涝灾害风险管理提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

Prediction of hazard changes in climate extremes is of important significance for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human society and natural systems. Using simulations of ＇ Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） ＇ , authors selected five indicators （ annual rainstorm days, annual maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance to riverlake） to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Anhui Province at county scale for the present （1981 -2010） and future （2011 -2100） under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed that compared with the present period, the mean annual rainstorm days and 3-day maximum precipitation over Anhui Province in the future would decrease in the north and increase in the south, while the probability of extreme precipitations would significantly increase. The flood hazard grade increased gradually from north to south in the four study periods. Changes of flood hazard patterns over Anhui Province in the future would mainly occur in the nearterm （2011 - 2040） and midterm （2041 -2070） , and the number of counties in grade five of flood hazard would be 16 and the area percentage would be 29.75% in the midterm, 1 and 1.24 times more than present period respectively. The results can provide scientific basis for flood risk management under climate change in this area.