中文摘要：

本文运用VAR模型构建了包含利率、汇率、房价、上证指数、广义货币供应量、消费者物价指数五个变量缺口值在内的金融状况指数（FCI,Financial Condition Index）,将FCI与通货膨胀和股市投资热度（新增证券账户数）进行预测检验,发现前者与后两者具有很强的一致性,并对后两者有很好的预测性。这表明房价和股票价格等资产价格对经济的影响越来越大,中央银行在实施调节经济波动,诸如控制通货膨胀的货币政策时,必须把资产价格可能影响货币政策的传导和独立性加以考虑。同时,因为本文所构建的金融状况指数在样本区间内与股市投资热度走势相吻合,所以FCI对投资者的股市投资决策具有一定参考价值。

英文摘要：

This paper constructs the financial condition index （FCI） through VAR model, based on the five variable gaps of interest rate, exchange rate, housing price, the shanghai composite index and the broad money supply, and then runs a prediction test between FCI with inflation and investment heat in stock market （newly increased security accounts） , the result shows that the constructed FCI has a strong consistence with inflation and the investment heat in stock market, and also has a good prediction to them. This indicates the asset prices such as real estate and stocks have a increasing influence in economy, when the central bank implements its policies to adjust economic fluctuations such as keeping the inflation in control, it must take that the asset prices may influence the independence and transmission of monetary policies into consideration. At the same time, the FCI is in conformity with the investment heat in the sample interval, so the FCI can be a reference index for stock investment.