采用IPCC AR4规定的极端天气事件划分标准,分析1908—2008年广州、香港、澳门和澎湖气象站2月份平均气温序列的变化趋势、极端冷/暖月的时空变化及其与伞球气候变暖的关系,得出近100a来华南沿海2月份各站平均气温存在准同步性和0.7-1.6℃/100a的上升趋势;其间还存在7个极端冷月和6个极端暖月。极端最冷、最暖月分别为1945年2月和2007年2月。受全球气候变暖的影响,近10a来2月份极端气候事件发生频率呈增大趋势,约2~3a1次。
February is usually the coldest month in South China coastal area. By using the definition standard of extreme events (EVE) prescribed by IPCC AR4, the air temperature variations of February in Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Macau and Penghu Islands during 1908-2008 are analyzed, spatial and temporal change characteristics of EVEs and their relationship with global climatic change also are discussed. The results show that: there were 7 extreme cold months and 6 extreme warm months during the period; the average air temperatures of February were in good synchronization among the above four stations and had the trend with warming 0.7-1.6 ℃ per 100 years over the past 100 years; the coldest and warmest February were in 1945 and 2007, respectively; the occurrence frequency of EVE in February was becoming high in last decades by influence of global warming, about one time per 2-3 years.