对2000年派现高峰之后的中国A股上市公司的现金股利变动的信息内涵进行实证研究后发现:2002年上市公司现金股利与收益同向变动时,公司当年的收益变动是持续性的或当期收益水平能持续下去;现金股利与收益反向变动时,公司当年的收益变动是暂时性的,后期可能发生反转。而2000~2001年现金股利的变动并不具有上述一致的信息内涵,表明2000年之后的派现高峰并不完全由政策变化所致,也有管理层的理性思考,政府监管初见成效。
Data of Chinese A board Listed companies' cash - dividends from the peak year of 2000 are analyzed. Not like the year of 2000 and 2001, in 2002, the listed companies' cash - dividends change synchronously with the change of their profit in a long term. Namely, in 2002, when a company's cash- dividend increases or decreases simultaneously with its profit increase or decrease respectively, the change of its profit in the year tend to continuous and steady, otherwise when a company' s cash - dividend does not increase or decrease simultaneously with its profit increase of decrease respec tively, the change of its profit in the year tend to be a temporary and reversible one. In case of 2000 and 2001, although only part of the listed companies followed the same role of 2002, there still some of them were running in the same role. The facts indicate that the cash- dividends peaked in 2000 are not totally resulted by policy effect, and that some management's rational thought has contributed to the appearance of the peak. The facts also indicate that from 2000 to now on, the monitoring from government to the stock market has proven to be effective.