中文摘要：

凝胶微球调剖是聚合物驱后进一步提高采收率的有效方法之一，但目前缺乏相应的效果预测与评价方法用于指导生产实践。为此首先建立了凝胶微球调剖含水率与采收率的解析预测公式，该公式可用于预测凝胶微球深部调驱的含水率、产油量、产水量等指标的变化规律；其次对概念模型的正交设计的数值模拟方案进行拟合，得到无因次增油倍数的经验预测公式，该公式可方便预测其提高采收率幅度和增油降水等指标；最后给出了注入井、生产井和区块3个层次的凝胶微球调剖效果评价方法。研究结果表明，解析公式和经验公式可以快速准确地预测凝胶微球的调剖效果，分层次的效果评价方法可全面系统地评价凝胶微球调剖矿场实施效果。

英文摘要：

Gel beads proifle control is an effective technique to enhance oil recovery after polymer lfooding. However, there is no relevant prediction and evaluation method to guide the ifeld application. An analytical equation between water cut and recovery factor is presented for the technique, which can forecast the variation of oil/water production and water cut during the process of deep gel beads proifle control. Many numerical simulation cases designed by orthogonal design method on the basis of conceptual model are iftted to derive the empirical prediction equation of dimensionless oil increment multiplier, which can be used to easily predict such indexes as enhanced oil recovery, incremental oil and reduced water. Finally, the evaluation method of gel beads proifle control is proposed in a hierarchy of injection wells, production wells and block. The results show that the analytical equation and empirical equation can be used to quickly and accurately predict the performance of gel beads proifle control and the hierarchal evaluation method can systematically appraise the ifeld effects of gel beads proifle control.