中文摘要：

在深入研究滑坡变形特征的基础上，以大冶铁矿东露天采场狮子山北帮滑坡位移监测数据为依据，采用灰色理论，将滑坡的预测模型与滑坡运动特征相结合，推导出传统GM（1，1）模型和优化的GM（1，1）模型，通过验算比较，优化的GM（1，1）模型预测曲线与实测曲线的拐点及发展趋势高度吻合，模拟精度高，预测值可信度大，对临滑滑坡也有一定的预警意义．优化的GM（1，1）模型可以用于中长期预测模型．

英文摘要：

Based on the study of damage characteristic and the landslide displacement monitoring data in Daye iron mine open pit,using grey theory, combinating the prediction model and the characteristics of landslide movement, traditional GM （1,1） model and optimized GM （1,1） model are derived. By comparison, the predict values of optimized GM （1,1） model are in good agreement with the measured values. With high analog precision, predictive value of the credibility, it is of great significance to sliding landslide. So optimized GM （1,1） model can be used as long-term prediction models.