影响广泛的市场化理论宣称市场化水平的提高能带来经济增长,文章利用中国1997--2007年的跨省数据,以“苛刻”的眼光对其进行重新评估。结果发现,目前支持该理论的证据仅是两者之间的一种正相关关系,存在因果关系的假说并不成立。而这种正相关关系的出现是由于遗漏了变量,通过固定效应模型消除因遗漏变量产生的偏误后,这种正相关关系也消失了。通过不同计量技术和不同样本的重复估计,这一结果是非常稳健的。
The widely accepted marketization theory claims that marketization brings economic growth. This paper re-evaluates critically this theory abovementioned by using the inter-province data in China from 1997 to 2007. The results show that at present the evidence supporting this theory is only a positive correlation between marketization and economic growth, and the hypothesis of causality dose not hold. But this correlation is due to omitted variables and disappears by fixed effect model which eliminates the bias caused by omitted variables. Through different econometric strategies and different samples to re-estimate the basic model, the results are very robust.