中文摘要：

为加强海上运输安全,保障船舶安全航行,运用灰色系统理论中的两种关联度计算方法,对辽宁水域2009—2013年的船舶交通事故致因排序进行了对比分析,得到加权灰色关联计算模型较传统灰色关联精确度更高,区分层次更加鲜明的结论;建立了基于原始数据和经二阶弱化算子处理的船舶事故总数GM（1,1）预测模型,对该水域未来的交通形势进行预测,并用预测数据与实际数据相对照,结果表明：经二阶弱化算子处理的GM（1,1）预测模型在事故预测方面具有更高的精度,能够为水上交通安全管理者提供决策参考.

英文摘要：

To improve marine transportation safety and ensure the navigation safety of ships, this paper uses two kinds of calculation methods of grey connection degree to comparatively analyze marine accidents between 2009 and 2013 in Liaoning waters, and gets the conclusion that weighted grey correlation model has higher precision than the traditional grey correlation one as well as distinction level. To predict the traffic situation in the future, we establish prediction model of total number of accidents based on original data and data disposed by second-order weakening operator. We conclude that GM （ 1,1 ） prediction model disposed by the second-order weakening operator has higher precision, and it could provide some guidance for water traffic safety management.