中文摘要：

文章利用递归VAR模型实证检验了美国房价波动对中美贸易的影响。通过脉冲响应分析发现美国房价增长率的正向冲击在短期内对中美贸易顺差增长率的总体影响为正,但同时也会引起中美贸易顺差增长率的上下交替波动,其波动的幅度随时间推移逐渐变小,直至一年左右后脉冲效应基本消失。通过方差分解分析进一步说明美国房价波动是引起中美贸易顺差短期波动最为重要的冲击源之一,其影响力超过了美国原材料价格波动和美国联邦基金利率波动的影响。

英文摘要：

This paper uses the recursive VAR model to study the effect of US house price fluctuation on the trade balance between China and the United States.The impulse response function shows that a positive shock of US house price growth has an overall favorable effect on the trade surplus between China and US in the short run. However,the shock will also lead to the alternate up-and-down fluctuations of the trade surplus,where the swing range diminishes with time and turns to zero after around a year.The variance decomposition analysis further indicates that the US house price fluctuation is one of the most important shocks to the trade balance between China and the United States.And its impact is even more important than the effect of raw materials and that of federal fund rates.