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中文摘要：
指出住房抵押贷款违约概率研究的重要性。主要考虑基于Merton的结构模型来度量这种违约事件发生的概率。假设收入服从几何布朗运动，给出了精确的违约概率表达式，最后通过数值模拟的结果来验证这个模型的有效性。
英文摘要：
Stressing the importance of the research into default probability on housing mortgage loans, in this paper we mainly present a model to reflect the choice of mortgagor as well as its attitude towards risk. Assumption wages following Geometry Brownian Motion, we present the precise model of the default probability, and confirm the theoretical results by the numerical results through wages growth simulating.
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