中文摘要：

针对新疆当前农业劳动力季节性短缺、劳动力引进难度加大、企业用工需求难以满足的现象，结合新疆“大农业”的产业结构、半封闭的劳动力市场等区域特征，分析人口抚养比、老龄化程度的现状，以及未来劳动力供求的变化趋势，探讨新疆劳动力转向有限供给的深层原因。结果表明，与全国及西部地区比较，从劳动生产率、比较劳动生产率、劳动参与率和就业一产业结构协调度等方面，新疆劳动力供给总量已难以满足未来跨越式发展的需求，从而较全国其它地区将更早迎来刘易斯拐点，进入劳动力有限供给时代。但是，导致新疆现阶段劳动力供给有限的主要原因并不是劳动力总量的不足，而是劳动参与率较低、就业结构与产业结构的不协调，劳动力净流入数量不断减少也是短期内出现劳动力有限供给的原因之一。因此，提出了提高劳动参与率、优化产业结构，调整劳动力政策，创新劳动力配置模式等政策建议。

英文摘要：

Agricultural industry in Xinjiang is facing some challenges, including seasonal shortage of agricultural labors, increasing difficulty to attract more labors, and serious labor shortage for rural enterprises in Xinjiang, ＂big agriculture＂ industrial structure, and semi closed labor market. After analyzing the population dependency ratio, aging degree, and the trend of labor demand and supply in the future, this paper discussed the deeper reasons causing the labor supply from unlimited to very limited. Results show that comparing with the west and China in labor productivity, comparative labor productivity, labor participation rate, and coordination between employment structure and industrial structure, Xinjiang＇ s labor supply is hard to meet the future labor demand from the rapid economic development and Xinjiang is likely to face Lewis turning point of limited labor supply earlier than other parts of our country. However, the main reason of the current labor shortage in Xinjiang is not the mmaber of labor supply, but rather the low labor participation rate and the inharmonious relationship between employment structure and industrial structure. In addition, the negative net labor migration is another reason for a limited supply of labor in the short term. This paper gives the following policy suggestions, including increasing labor participation rate, optimizing the industrial structure, adjusting labor policies, and encouraging innovative labor allocation.