抑制在线社交网络上的谣言传播是复杂系统研究的重要课题,也是持续提升互联网治理水平的重要保障。本文首先分析网络谣言传播区别于疾病传播的兴趣衰减和社会强化机制,构建具有衰减与社会强化机制的在线社交网络谣言传播模型;其次,通过动力学演化方程组分析网络谣言的传播阈值;最后,采用数值仿真方法揭示兴趣衰减和社会强化机制下不同类型节点的演化规律。结果表明,合理利用兴趣衰减能够有效降低网络谣言传播规模,但是社会强化机制的不当使用会使辟谣行为陷入“塔西佗陷阱”,反而助长谣言传播;要根据用户对谣言的辨识和醒悟能力,制定合适的干预策略。
The research on restraining rumor spreading in online social networks has become an important topic in complex system area, which can also significantly improve the internet governance level. This paper first analyzed the differences of interest attenuation and social enhancement mechanisms between the spread of lnternet rumors and that of disease, constructing an online social network rumor spreading model with attenuation and social enhancement mechanism. Secondly, we discussed the network rumor spreading threshold through dynamic evolution equations. Finally, this paper applied numerical simulation method to reveal the evolution of different types of nodes under the interest attenuation and social reinforcement mechanism. The results showed that, rational use of interest attenuation can effectively reduce network rumor size, but improper use of social reinforcement mechanism will make the rumor behavior into a "Tacitus trap" and encouraged the spread of rumors. Therefore, appropriate intervention strategies should be implemented according to users' identification and awakening ability.