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中文摘要：
基于事故致因理论建立煤矿突水事故模型。煤矿突水事故危险源被分为突水水源、突水通道、突水诱因和应急失效4类；建立煤矿突水事故树模型，并提出基于事故树方法的煤矿突水危险性专项评价方法。以杨庄矿及其周边6个地方煤矿为例，识别周边地方煤矿可能诱发杨庄矿发生地表洪水、太原组灰岩水等突水的4类突水事故危险源，并以此建立杨庄矿突水事故树模型，求最小割集评价最危险突水路径，利用最小径集优化最有效防治措施。研究结果表明，有306种可使杨庄煤矿发生煤矿突水的基本事件组合，防止杨庄矿突水事故发生的有效途径是加强监管，杜绝地方煤矿穿层、越界等违规操作。事故树方法可以完成复杂煤矿突水危险性专项安全评价。
英文摘要：
Water-inrush is one of the most difficultly predicted and controlled mining accidents. On the basis of accident-causing theory, the conceptual model of mine water-inrush is developed; and the risk sources of mine water-inrush are classified into inrush water-sources, inrush passages, inrush-induced factors and salvage failure. Based on fault tree analysis, the fault tree model of mine water-inrush is constructed and the method to assess the risk of water-inrush is proposed. Taking Yangzhuang Mine, a key state-owned coal mine, for example, four types of risk sources of water-inrush from six southern-surrounding local mines are analyzed; and the water-inrush fault tree model of Yangzhuang Mine is constructed. The least cut-set to find out the most dangerous water-inrush paths is derived： and the least path-set to optimize the most effective water-inrush controlling way is presented. The result shows that there are 306 kinds of possible water-inrush cases for Yangzhuang Mine; and the most effective way for controlling water-inrush hazards is to strictly prohibit the local mines exceeding their permitted and authorized boundaries. It shows that the fault tree analysis can be effectively used in safety assessment of mine water-inrush accidents.
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