本文通过构造基于共保体的巨灾指数保险、巨灾债券和巨灾保险基金的风险过程模型,采用1992~2015年云南省地震损失数据,应用MonteCarlo方法进行地震风险仿真模拟,探讨了不同模式下巨灾风险转移效率及破产概率,并对国家选择巨灾风险转移组织形式体系提出建议。
The paper constructed the risk process model on the basis of catastrophe index insurance, catastrophe bond and catastrophe insurance fund of the co-insurance pool. Then it used the Monte Carlo method to simulate the earthquake risk on the basis of earthquake losses in Yunnan Province from 1992 to 2015. The paper aimed to ex- plore the risk transfer efficiency and ruin probability of catastrophe risks in different modes, and put forward sugges- tions for the country to adopt the catastrophe risk transfer organization form.