本文对1949—2005年江淮梅雨与西北太平洋台风的关系及原因进行研究,指出梅雨降水量与全年、台风季的台风频数存在显著的负相关,分别达到-0.45、-0.39,并且有比较一致的反相位年际、年代际变化.季风槽向东延伸位置的不同,副高强度和位置的变化是导致两者存在显著负相关关系,以及台风路径、趋势差异的主要原因.梅雨异常年份的台风特征有着显著差别:多梅雨年份台风不活跃,路径以西北行为主,有较多的台风影响台湾南部和中国东南沿海,少梅雨年份则台风较活跃,以西行和转向路径为主,较多影响中国东部沿海,并且少梅雨年份有约两倍数量的台风登陆我国.
This article analyzes the relationship between typhoon in the northwestern Pacific and meiyu in the Yangtze and Huaihe valleys from 1949 to 2005. It points out that there is an obvious negative correlation, varying from-0.45 to -0.39, between meiyu precipitation and typhoon frequency both annually and in typhoon season. The main reasons are the different positions of monsoon trough, and the changes in intensity and locations of subtropical high. The characteristics of typhoon in an abnormal precipitation year are differentiated prominently: typhoon is inactive in the year when meiyu precipitation is abundant, the tracks of which direct northwesterly, and relatively more typhoons activate in the south of Taiwan and South China Sea; typhoon is more active in the year when meiyu precipitation is scarce, the tracks of which mainly direct westward or take turning, and relatively more typhoons activate in South China Sea and East China Sea; and landfall typhoon doubles.