中文摘要：

利用ARMA模型对河川径流量预测进行了研究．ARMA模型主要利用数据间的相关性来建立模型．根据数据分析建立ARMA（3，1）模型最优，但预测效果并不好．为了达到好的预测效果，把两个ARMA模型组合运用建立新的模型，得到较好的预测效果．

英文摘要：

This paper studied on the forecasting of river runoff by ARMA model. ARMA model mainly used data relevance to build the model. ARMA （3,1） built by analysis is the best model, while the results were not good. Therefore, in order to get good forecasting result combined two ARMA models to build the new model,and got the better forecasting result.