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中文摘要：
对于日调节或径流式电站而言，调度期初始水位估算的准确与否直接影响其日前计划执行的可行性。考虑到水轮机运转特性曲线（NHQ）方法受计划出力过程影响较大，导致水位估算精度不高，而且其影响因素改进空间有限，故引入1种基于相关因素匹配的模糊聚类分析方法预测电站在调度期的平均耗水率，并利用水量平衡原理计算其初始水位。该方法首先利用已有资料对影响耗水率的所有因素进行权重率定，然后根据所得的最佳权重值通过聚类分析原理预测调度期的平均耗水率，最终得到电站的日初水位。实际算例表明，与NHQ水位估算方法相比，该方法得到的水位估算值满足精度要求，是可行且有效的。
英文摘要：
For daily regulation power station and run-off hydroelectric station, initial water level is of great importance for day-ahead schedule. Because of the influence of output course scheduling and some other influencing factors which can hardly improved, the computation results of NHQ method has low precision. A fuzzy cluster analysis based on matching of related factors was presented which is capable of forecasting the next-day average water consumption rate and then initial water level was estimated by water balance principle. First, the weight coefficients were decided from the existing data. Then average water consumption rate was forecasted basing on the doctrine of fuzzy cluster analysis and initial water level was calculated. The result shows that comparing to NHQ method, this method, getting more accurate results, is valid and feasible.
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