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中文摘要：
采用两种方法分析了上海市2001—2009年城市供水的脆弱性,结果呈现出相似的变化特点。分析发现,在影响上海城市供水脆弱性的变化方面,经济发展（即GDP）的贡献大于人口。据上海市社会经济发展趋势,若维持2009年日供水能力不变,则2020年满足安全阈限范围10%～15%要求需增加供水量2.31～4.23亿m3;若考虑青草沙水库供水能力（719万m3/d）,则2020年上海市供水仍远高于安全阈限范围。最后提出进一步改进城市供水脆弱性估算及风险分析需要加强的方面。
英文摘要：
Two methods are used to calculate the vulnerability of urban water supply of Shanghai from 2001 to 2009,and the results show similar characteristics of changes.Analysis showed that the contribution of GDP is bigger than the population on influencing changes of water supply vulnerability of Shanghai.According to the socio-economic development trends of Shanghai,given the daily constant water supply capacity in 2009,and 231 ～ 423 million m3 water supply would be increased in 2020 if the safety threshold range requirements satisfied;If the supply capacity of Grass Sand Reservoir（7.19 million m3 / d） considered,the vulnerability will be still much higher than the safety threshold range 10 %～ 15% in 2020.Some suggestions are put forward to improving the estimation of water supply vulnerability and strengthening risk analysis further.
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