中文摘要：

【目的】建立物种分布模型，模拟预测黄芪（AstragaliRadix）在我国未来分布格局，探讨影响其生长环境响因子阈值，为野外开采和人工种植提供参考，实现黄芪的可持续利用。【方法】利用野外调查收集和文献数据库收录的黄芪分布地的经纬度，基于影响黄芪生长的22个环境因子构建MaxEnt模型，利用ArcGIS对其潜在适宜生境区进行分析预测。【结果】淤当前黄芪适宜生境区主要分布在内蒙古、黑龙江、甘肃和宁夏等降水量相对较少的山地地区，面积约为50.60万km2，21世纪50年代至70年代，黄芪适生区面积逐渐减少，内蒙古东北部山区黄芪适生区分布最多，我国黄芪适生区总体向北移动；于影响黄芪地理分布的主导生态因子有：海拔、最湿月降水量、最干季平均温度、最热季平均温度、坡度、最湿季平均温度、最热季降水量和温度季节性变动系数；主导黄芪分布的前3个生态因子的阈值：海拔（ALSE）0耀4600m，最湿月降水量（Bio13）10耀480mm，最干季平均温度（Bio9）0耀28益。【结论】未来，内蒙古、甘肃、宁夏地区为黄芪重要生产区，控制温度、湿度等因素可显著改善其生境条件。

英文摘要：

【Objective】The aim of the study was to predict the distribution and habitat suitability of Astragali Radix in China and to explore potential impacts of climate change on the suitability of A.Radix.This study may provide useful references for cultivating A.Radix.【Method】The distributions of A.Radix were studied by field survey and herbarium search.The significant factors determining its distribution were analyzed based on MaxEnt-model and geographic information system.【Result】①A.Radixmainly distributed(suitability index﹥0.4)in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Gansu,Ningxia provinces.These suitable habitats(506thousands km2)often were mountainous with higher elevation and less precipitation.By the2050s and2070s,the suitable habitats move forward to north.②The main environmentalfactors determining potential distribution were altitude,precipitation of wettest month,mean temperature of driest quarter,mean temperature of warmest quarter,slope,precipitation of the driest quarter,precipitationofwarmestquarterand temperatureseasonality.The thresholdsof three dominant climatic factors were shown as0