中文摘要：

以颍河源头流域告成集水区为研究区域,根据区域相关规划构建森林覆被、现状覆被以及耕地覆被情景,利用BTOPMC（Block-wise use of TOPMODEL with the Muskingum-Cunge method）模型模拟分析不同土地覆被情景下的径流过程,研究结果表明：研究区域由现状覆被转变为森林覆被会使得流域蒸散发能力增加25.3%,截留蒸发和土壤蒸散发量分别增大13.9%和18.4%,进而导致总径流量、地表径流以及基流量分别减少45.5%、54.6%和42.4%;由现状覆被向耕地覆被转变会导致蒸散发能力和土壤蒸散发量分别减小27.4%和20.9%,进而导致总径流量、地表径流以及基流量分别增加48.2%、63.0%和43.2%.地表径流对土地覆被变化的响应较基流敏感,雨季期间土地覆被变化对径流的影响较枯季显著.

英文摘要：

The headstream watershed controlled by the Gaocheng hydrological station was selected as study area.Three land cover scenarios such as forest land,current situation and crop land were constructed according the existing planning.The runoff simulation under different land cover scenarios was conducted with BTOPMC（Block-wise use of TOPMODEL with the Muskingum-Cunge method）model.The result showed that if the current land cover converted into forest land cover scenario,the potential evapotranspiration,soil evaporation and interception evaporation increased by 25.3%,13.9% and 18.4%,respectively,meanwhile the total runoff,overland flow and base flow reduced by 45.5%,54.6% and 42.4%,respectively.When/If the current land cover converted into crop land cover scenario,the potential evapotranspiration and soil evaporation reduced by 27.4%and 20.9%respectively,and the to-tal runoff,overland flow and base flow increased by 48.2%,63.0% and 43.2% respectively.The overland flow response to land cover change was more sensitive than that to base flow.The effect of land cover change on runoff was more remarkable in wet season than that in dry season.