中文摘要：

网络论坛成为人们获取信息的重要途径,如果能够自动发现网络热点话题并且能够预测其发展趋势,对于政府调控舆论倾向、保持社会的和谐稳定都有着重要作用。论文主要讨论如何从论坛帖子中找出热点话题,并且预测它在一定时间内的关注度变化。在话题发现与跟踪方法的基础上,对论坛帖子进行文本聚类,得到话题簇,进而根据话题关注度的变换趋势,建立马尔可夫链,根据得到的转移概率矩阵,来预测近期出现相关话题的关注度的变化。

英文摘要：

Internet forums become an important way for people to get information.It is very important for government to regulate the tendency of public opinion and maintain social harmony and stability if the trends of some hot topics can be discover and predict automatically.This article investigates the methods to identify hot topics from the forum posts,and to predict changes of people＇s attentions within a certain time period.This article analysis forum posts using text clustering,and then get the topic clusters based on the TDT method.Then establish a Markov chain according the transform trend of topic attention.Then predict changes in recent topic of attention according to the transition probability matrix.