我国大多数鲜活农产品价格波动的剧烈程度是粮食的两倍左右且两者的波幅几乎无统计相关性.价格波幅中有超过40%的比率由隐性交易成本波动造成,总交易成本波动幅度大是导致价格剧烈波动的直接原因。理论分析和国际比较表明,交易成本大幅波动的根本成因是供应链核心环节缺位导致的供应链制度安排不合理或缺失。构建以全国性公益鲜活农产品电子批发市场为核心环节的供应链管理模式和以该市场为中心的供应链金融体系,不但能解决局部供需不均衡、交易成本高和价格波动大等问题,而且能促进现代农业发展和提升金融产业的核心竞争力。
The empirical results show that the price fluctuation of most fresh agricultural products is about 2 times severer than grain and there is no statistical correlation between them, over 40% of the fluctuations are caused by the fluctuation of implicit transaction cost, the great total transaction cost fluctuation leads to great price fluctuation. Theoretical analysis and international comparison indicate that the basic cause for the extreme fluctuation of transaction cost is the lack of supply-chain system, which is caused by the lack of core components in fresh agricultural products supply-chain. Build the supply-chain management basing on nationwide and public-benefit electronic wholesale market for fresh agricultural products and construct the related supply-chain finance system. They can not only solve the problems of partial imbalance of supply & demand, high transaction cost and wild price fluctuation, but also promote the development of modern agriculture and enhance the core competitiveness of financial industry.