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中文摘要：
我国是一个气象灾害频发的国家，气象灾害占到了所有自然灾害的70%，旱涝灾害对国民经济和人民生命财产造成重大影响，而旱涝灾害的发生常常与东亚副热带季风的变异有关。本项目将从海-陆-气相互作用对东亚副热带季风变异的影响机理进行研究，探讨东亚副热带季风变异在中国旱涝形成中的作用。东亚季风的建立和维持是诸多动力和热力因子以及大气内部过程综合作用的结果，其中海-陆-气相互作用是影响东亚副热带季风变化的重要因子，本群体未来研究将从多圈层相互作用角度出发，利用资料诊断和数值模拟的方法，综合研究海洋、陆面、青藏高原等若干物理因子对东亚副热带季风的影响以及它们在季风建立不同阶段的相对重要性，从而探讨东亚大陆、热带和副热带海洋等对东亚副热带季风建立和维持的影响，深入认识东亚海-陆-气相互作用及其东亚季风的变化规律和机理。
英文摘要：
East Asian subtropical monsoon；Air-sea-land interaction；Multiscale variability；Physical mechanisms；
结论摘要：
创新群体围绕海-陆-气相互作用，利用多种最新观测数据，采用现代统计和动力分析方法，揭示了东亚副热带季风系统的细致特征及其异常活动的机理。（一）东亚副热带季风系统的多时间尺度特征研究: 研发了多个考虑降水时空一体化演变特征的新方法和新指数，可用于降水特征研究和模式性能评估；基于高时空分辨率台站降水资料，揭示了东亚副热带地区降水的时间和空间的细致特征；揭示了东亚副热带地区云和对流的主要特征及演变机理；提出了分别针对华北、江淮和华南强降水事件的多尺度环流模型；揭示了东亚副热带季风强降水相联系的大气低频环流特征及其演变；揭示了西南复杂地形区独特的气候特征和形成机理；深刻认识了东亚气候年际和年代际变化的主要特征和演变机理。（二）关键外强迫因子的相互作用及其影响东亚副热带季风变异的机理研究揭示了各类ENSO事件对东亚副热带季风变异的影响，特别强调了东部型和中部型ENSO对我国东部降水的不同作用；提出了热带西太平洋的季节内振荡在厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜期间的差异是华南冬季降水对ENSO不对称响应的一个重要原因；提出亚洲陆地上空大气环流与印度洋气候异常变化对我国东部变暖有重要贡献；系统分析了北极海冰对东亚气候的影响及在季节预测中的前期预示意义。（三）东亚副热带季风的数值模式研发和评估发展了高精度守恒的多矩约束有限体积方法，并在此基础上发展了二维非静力模式和球面浅水波模式；提出了一种定量表示青藏高原复杂地形动力作用的方法用于改良模式中的地形表示；从模式模拟能力评估入手，针对东亚地区模拟偏差最大的云、降水过程开展针对性模拟，提出了模式对降水日变化模拟的不确定性主要与积云对流参数化方案有关；发现提高模式水平分辨率有利于层云出现频率的增加，可以改善层云量和短波云辐射强迫的模拟效果；以上结果在改进模式对东亚气候的模拟效果以及提高模式对东亚副热带季风的预测能力等方面具有重要的应用价值。群体成员共发表论文108篇（含已录用5篇），其中SCI收录期刊论文69篇。
成果综合统计
期刊论文
会议论文
专利
获奖
著作
期刊论文
Shortwave cloud radiative forcing on major stratus cloud regions in AMIP-type simulations of CMIP3 a
The zonal propagating characteristics of low-frequency oscillation over the Eurasian mid-high latitu
Two types of El Nino-related Southern Oscillation and their different impacts on global land precipi
A Forecast Error Correction Method in Numerical Weather Prediction by Using Recent Multiple-time Evo
Gridded hourly precipitation analysis from high-density rain-gauge network over the Yangtze-Huai Riv
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relations of Distinctive Stratus Clouds on the Lee Side of the Tibetan Pla
Comparison of the structure and evolution of intraseasonal oscillations before and after onset of th
Preceding Factors of Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation and the Physical Mechanism for Their Potential
Interannual variation of the wintertime fog–haze days across central and eastern China and its relat
Effect of the atmospheric heat source on the development and eastward movement of the Tibetan Platea
The cooperative impacts of the El Ni？o–Southern Oscillation and theIndian Ocean Dipole on the intera
Synoptic pattern and severe weather associated with the wide convectionover Southeast China during t
Response of summer rainfall over China to spring snow anomalies overSiberia in the NCEP CFSv2 refore
Vertical Structures and Physical Properties of the Cold-Season Stratus Clouds Downstream of the Tibe
Relationship between an abrupt drought-flood transition over mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in
Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over Ch
Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January
Impact of East Asian Winter and Australian Summer Monsoons on the Enhanced Surface Westerlies over t
Corresponding relation between warm season precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in Sou
Investigation of the predictability and physical mechanisms of an extreme-rainfall-producing mesosca
Correlation between peak intensity of extreme afternoon short-duration rainfall and humidity and sur
Topographic effects on spatiotemporal variations of short-duration rainfall events in warm season of
Initiation and organizational modes of an extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective system along a
Trend of surface air temperature in eastern China and associated large-scale climate variability ove
Prediction skill and predictability of Eurasian snow cover fraction in the NCEP climate Forecast Sys
Global shallow water models based on multi-moment constrained finite volume method and three quasi-u
Improvement of rainfall simulation on the steep edge of the TibetanPlateau by using a finite？differe
The Definition and Characteristics of Regional Rainfall EventsDemonstrated by Warm Season Precipitat
Interannual Variation of the South Asian High and Its Relation withIndian and East Asian Summer Mons
Recent Reversal of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Trend and its Rolein Intensifying the East Asi
Initiation, maintenance, and properties of convection in an extreme rainfall event during SCMREX: Ob
会议论文
Coupling Wheels of EastAsian Monsoon Circulation and Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall inCh
Investigation ofpredictability of an extreme-rain -producing mesoscale convective system alonga mei-
Persistence of RegionalPrecipitation Anomalies Over Eastern China in Boreal Summer and its Linkage t
Meteorological Conditionsfor the Persistent Severe Fog-Haze Event over Eastern China in January 2013
Two Types of ElNi？o-related Southern Oscillations and Their Different Impacts on the EastAsian Monso
Impact of Indian Summermonsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over Chi
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