中文摘要：

生态用地是人类赖以生存的基本资源与条件，保护生态用地，逐步恢复生态破坏严重地带，退还自然生态用地，对于维护生态平衡，改善区域生态状况，促进人与自然和谐，实现经济社会可持续发展，具有十分重要的意义。本文以京津冀地区为例，通过建立不同阶段各生态用地类型变化的logistic回归模型，很好地揭示了区域不同阶段土地覆被变化的驱动因素。主要结论如下：①对于林地变化，第一阶段（1980年一2000年）主要的解释变量是土壤表层有机质含量、坡度级I（〈5°）、到最近农村居民点的距离、到最近国道的距离和人均GDP，而在第二阶段（2000年-2005年）主要的解释变量是土壤表层有机质含量、坡度级I、地貌类型和农业人口占总人口的百分比；②对于草地变化，第一阶段（1980年-2000年）主要的驱动因素是土壤表层有机质含量，而在第二阶段（2000年-2005年）主要的驱动因素是到最近国道的距离；③对于湿地变化，第一阶段（1980年-2000年）主要的驱动因素是地貌类型，而在第二阶段主要的驱动因素是人均GDP。

英文摘要：

Land use and coverage change （LUCC） has been considered a very important factor in the study of environmental/ecological protection and global environmental changes. Ecological land is the essential component and resource for human being. Protecting ecological land, improving currently damaged ecological zones, and returning naturally ecological land are important issues for enhancing and balancing regionally ecological conditions. These issues are also meaningful for sustainable development and harmony between human and nature. This study quantified the impact factors and mechanisms of ecological land use change in this region, which would be helpful in providing strategies in improving regionally ecological security. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is China＇ s third largest economy after the development of ＂Yangtze river delta region＂ and ＂Pearl river delta region＂. Many factors, such as economic expansion and population growth, lead to a fact that our environment has been degraded and thus ecology is malfunctioned in some places. Due to the ignorance of efficient land use （e.g., urbanization, overexploitation of forests, and reclamation of land from lakes）, most of forests and wetlands in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region do not function properly, which have a great impact on the ecological system. The objectives of this study were to discuss how to build a logistic regression model to describe the land use change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and explore to what extent this model can distinguish factors influencing land use change. This study examines the important variables of regional land coverage change by establishing logistic regression models in different periods in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Main conclusions are as following. For forest land coverage change, ＂soil organic matter （SOM） contents＂, ＂gradients I （〈5°）＂, ＂distance to the nearest village＂, ＂distance to the nearest highway＂, and ＂GDP per capita＂ are the most important independent