中文摘要：

应用统计降尺度法,建立GCM和HBV流域水文模型耦合关系,分析和预测未来气候变化A2、B2情景下汉江流域径流量的变化情况.通过极值频率分析可以得到,2种情景下,相对于1961—2000年,汉江流域上游2011—2100年的径流量具有增加的趋势,洪水可能会更加频繁发生,并且A2情景较B2情景下洪峰流量更大.

英文摘要：

The impact of climate change on hydrology is a prevailing focus of research. The runoff in upper reaches of the Hanjiang River basin under A2 and B2 climate scenarios was predicted by the coupled relationship between GCM and HBV hydrologic model by means of statistical downscaling technology. By frequency analysis and extreme events study, the results show that the runoff in upper reaches of the Hanjiang River showed an increasing tendency under both scenarios during the period of 2011 to 2100 compared with that during the period of 1961 to 2000, and floods will occur more frequently. In particular, the magnitude of floods under A2 scenario is larger than that under B2 scenario.