中文摘要：

以长江上游支流嘉陵江为研究对象。利用嘉陵江流域的11个国家气象站1961年-2001年的实测降水数据和NCEP再分析数据，建立了嘉陵江流域降水的统计降尺度模型。在A2和B2排放情景下应用HadCM3的输出数据，预测嘉陵江流域未来三个时期（2010年-2039年、2040年-2069年、2070年-2099年）降水变化情况。分析结果表明相对于基准期的模拟降水量，在HadCM3的A2和B2排放情景下．模拟得到嘉陵江流域大部分区域的降水量有明显上升趋势。

英文摘要：

The observed precipitation series from eleven national weather stations from 1961 to 2001 and NCEP reanalysis data were used to establish a statistical downscaling model of the research object, Jialing River, the upper Yangtze River basin. Tbe output data of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios were imported to the automatic statistical downscaling model to predict the future annual precipitation during 2010 2039, 2040 -2069, 2070-2099 periods. The results of prediction demonstrated an obvious trend of increase in most of the river basin comparing to the modeled precipitation during 1961-2001 in the end of this century.