本文利用2002—2009年广东省城镇住户调查数据(UHS),分析了社会保险参与率和缴费率对城镇家庭消费的影响。借助工具变量法解决模型内生性问题,研究发现:与未参保家庭相比,参保家庭的消费支出将增加0.61%,但社保缴费率增加1%,城镇家庭消费会降低0.63%。从家庭类型看,国有部门、高收入和年轻家庭社保缴费率对消费的抑制效应高于非国有部门、低收入和老年家庭。从社保类型看,养老保险缴费率增加1%,消费将降低2.58%;而医疗保险缴费率增加1%,消费将增加2.1%。从支出类型看,养老保险缴费率对食品、衣服、教育、娱乐和交通等支出大类均具有显著抑制作用,但养老保险缴费率对子女培训班、烟酒和在外就餐等支出细项却具有显著促进作用。
Based on the data of urban household survey (UHS) in 2002 to 2009, this paper analyzes the effects of the participation rate and the contribution rate of social insurance on urban household consumption. We use instrumental variables method to solve the endogenous problem of the models and get the following results. Compared to uninsured families, the household of participating in social insurance increased 0.61% of household consumption; but the contribution rate of social security increased 1% ; and the household consumption reduced 0.63%. For the type of family, the effect of the contribution rate of social insurance on consumption of the state-owned sector, high-income and young birth cohort families are higher than the non-state sector, low-income and elderly birth cohort families. Based on the type of social security, if the contribution rate of pension insurance increased 1%, consumption will decrease 2.58%; if the contributinn rate of health insurance increased 1% , then consumption will increase 2.1%. Depending on the type of expenditure, the contribution rate of pension insurance has significantly negative effect on some larger expending categories, such as food, clothing, education, entertainment and transportation; however, it has significantly positive effect on some smaller expending categories, such as child training courses, tobacco, alcohol, and eatin~ out.