中文摘要：

本文建立一个引入有管理的浮动汇率制的开放经济中型DSGE模型,使用中国宏观数据进行贝叶斯估计,考察对比不同货币政策规则的经验表现、宏观效应以及对应的最优单一规则的福利绩效。研究表明：模型能拟合货币政策冲击的驼峰型反应,目标区间利率规则有最优的经验表现;在易变性和福利损失方面,利率规则优于数量规则,汇率渠道会放大货币政策的宏观效应,对实际汇率做出反应优于不做反应或对名义汇率做出反应;在利率规则下,增加政策工具变化的持续性、放松对汇率变化的干预会增进社会福利,在数量规则下,降低工具的持续性、加强汇率干预将增进福利。研究结论为开放经济条件下中国货币政策的设计提供了启示。

英文摘要：

This paper provides a medium-scale open economy DSGE model with managed floating exchange rate regime, uses Chinese data for Bayesian estimation and compares the empirical performance, macroeconomie effect and welfare performance of various monetary policy rules and corresponding optimal simple rules. The main results are as follows. （1） The models can capture the hump-shaped responses of key variables to a monetary policy shock, and the target zone interest rate rule has the most desirable empirical performance. （2） In terms of volatility and welfare loss, interest rate rules dominate quantity rules. Exchange rate channel may amplify the macroeconomic effect of monetary policy. And a policy rule responding to real exchange rate dominates a rule that doesn＇ t respond to exchange rate or a rule responding to nominal exchange rate. （3） Under interest rate rules, social welfare can be improved by increasing the persistence of interest rate instrument and relieving the intervention to exchange rate, while under quantity rules, welfare can be improved by decreasing the persistence of the instrument and intensifying the intervention to exchange rate. The findings provide some revelations about China＇ s monetary policy design in the open economy.