中文摘要：

人口结构转变背景下人口老龄化加速，劳动力供给数量趋减，劳动者受教育程度提高，新生代劳动力择业行为转变，低端劳动力成本攀升，这将对我国制造业发展产生深远影响。基于1952—2014年中国人口、劳动力和制造业发展相关数据，本文对劳动力供给变化影响制造业升级的机理深入展开探讨，认为劳动力供给数量下降会倒逼制造业升级，知识型劳动力占比提速会顺推制造业升级，新生代劳动者择业行为转变会促进制造业升级。因此，我国应顺沿劳动力供给变化，既要通过技术技能双提升、人才培养模式创新和科技创新驱动制造业升级，又要通过政策促推制造业向和劳动力供给动态变化相协调的价值链高端和结构高端升级。

英文摘要：

Under the background of demographic transition, the graying of population of China is becoming more and more quickly, and the quantity of supplying labors has been decreasing quickly, and the education level of labors has been increasing fast, and the employment behavior of the new generation labors has been changing, and the cost of low-end labors is rising quickly, and aft of the above factors will have far-reaching effectiveness on Chinese manufacturing up- grade. Based on the data of 1952 -2013 years＇ population, labors and the development of manu- facturing of China, this paper has a deep research on the effective mechanism of labors supply change on manufacturing upgrade, and holds the main ideas of that the decreasing quantity of supplying labors forces manufacturing to upgrade, and the increasing education level of labors improves manufacturing to upgrade, and the changing employment behavior of the new genera- tion labors impels manufacturing to upgrade. As for the above reasons, the Chinese government should promote manufacturing to upgrade according to the labors supply change by carrying out some policies, such as by promoting labors＇ technology and skill level, by innovating talents＇ training mode, by promoting technology innovational level and by matching the manufacturing de- velopment with the dynamic changing of labors supply.