中文摘要：

综合居民消费习惯、收入、利率、不确定性、流动性约束等因素，将异质性假设引入预防性储蓄理论并构建动态面板模型，以我国31个省市1999年-2011年的面板数据为基础，重点考察居民行为异质性条件下我国城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机强度。实证分析表明：①消费习惯、收入、老年抚养比、男女性别比、实际利率均是影响城镇居民消费的重要因素，但对预防性储蓄动机的强化作用不够显著；②引入异质性因素后，我国城镇居民预防性储蓄动机明显加强，其中少年抚养比、房价上涨给未来教育支出与购房支出带来了很强的不确定性，是引起消费异质性的核心因素，并强化了预防性储蓄动机。因此，要改善我国当前高储蓄与低消费现状，关键在于降低教育和房价等因素对消费支出不确定性的影响。

英文摘要：

Based on the comprehensive influence of consumption habits,income,interest rates,uncertainty,and liquidity constraints,and considering the heterogeneity of precautionary saving motives,we structure a dynamic panel model to explain the strength and reasons of precautionary saving motives of urban inhabitants in China during 1999-2011 by using the panel data of 31 provinces. The results show that：①Consumption habits,income,the elderly dependency ratio,the ratio of male to female,real interest rates are important factors that influence the con-sumption of urban residents in China,but not important factors to promote precautionary saving motives;②The strength of precautionary saving motives of urban residents is obviously improved when the heterogeneity of precau-tionary savings motives is considered. The uncertainties of the housing reform and the education reform are the ma-jor factors to the heterogeneity of urban inhabitants’precautionary savings motives. So,in order to improve the sit-uations of high saving rates and low consumption,the key is to reduce the expected uncertainty of the consumption expenditure caused by the reforms of education and rising house prices.