中文摘要：

为研究尾矿库溃坝风险的演化过程,有效预防溃坝事故,从生命周期视角,运用系统动力学（SD）理论建立尾矿库勘察设计、建造以及运行阶段的溃坝风险流图;结合尾矿库案例进行应用分析,揭示该尾矿库生命周期溃坝风险的动态演化特征;并探讨企业风险预警值、风险投入方案对尾矿库溃坝风险水平的影响。研究表明：随着时间的推移,尾矿库总体溃坝风险不断增加;勘察设计阶段,风险量在第40~55个月之间线性增长,风险速率变化曲线呈抛物线型;建造阶段,溃坝风险量出现台阶式的增长;运行阶段溃坝风险量波浪式上升,并在第60月达到最大值;企业风险预警值的改变对尾矿库溃坝风险水平预测有显著影响;勘察设计阶段增加风险管理投入,有助于降低和控制尾矿库溃坝风险。

英文摘要：

To study the evolution of dam collapse risk and prevent dam failure effectively,a dam collapse risk flow chart was establishes for the life cycle including survey design,construction and operation phases. On the basis of a certain tailings dam for ardealite tailings,the risk flow chart was used to reveal the dynamic evolution characteristics of life-cycle dam-break risk. Effects a given enterprise risk early-warning value and a given risk investment scheme can have on the dam-break risk were also investigated. Results show that the risk of the overall dam collapse increases over time,that at the stage of survey design, the risk increases linearly between 40 and 55 months, and the risk rate changes parabolically,that the dam-break risk increases step-by-step at construction stage,while during the operation phase,the risk of dam-break rises wave upon wave and reaches the maximum at the 60 th month,that the corporate risk warning value has a significant impact on the risk prediction of dam,and that the increase in risk investment at the survey design stage is helpful to reduce and control the dam risk.