中文摘要：

在全球专利膨胀的大背景下，有效的早期专利评价指标是把握技术发展态势服务战略和技术管理的有力工具。本文以中国专利局1986—2005年间授权的机械工具领域发明专利为研究对象，以专利文献中早期可获得的经济或技术信息为基础构建出专利质量早期表征指标，选择专利维持时间作为专利质量的代理变量，建立生存分析模型，利用SPSS统计软件研究了这些早期指标表征专利质量的有效性。研究表明，该技术领域中权利要求项数的增加能够降低国内专利生存危险，专利说明书页数和发明人数的增加能够降低国外专利生存风险，对应专利组的平均专利质量也相对高。结果说明，权利要求项数、说明书页数、发明人数等早期文献指标能够不同程度地表征专利质量。本研究结果、思路及方法对探索和确定早期专利评价指标特别是适合中国专利数据的指标具有启发性，也为从广义虚拟经济的角度研究专利资产价值提供参考。

英文摘要：

Against the background of explosive expansion of patent quantity worldwide, the effective evaluation indicators at the early stage of patents serve as a powerful tool for mastering the technology development trend, service strategy, and technological management. Taking machine tool patents issued by State Intellectual Property Office （SIPO） of China during the period of 1986 - 2005 as a research object, early stage indicators are constructed based on the economic or technical information obtained in the early patent bibliography, and the patent renewal duration is selected as the proxy variable of the patent quality. How effective the patent quality characterized by these indicators is studied with the aid of the statistical software of SPSS and Cox survival analysis modeling. It is found that the increase of claim number is able to reduce the survival risk of internal patents, meanwhile the in- crease of both specification pages and inventors is able to reduce the survival risk of external patents, and the average patent qual- ity for corresponding group is relatively higher. It is further indicated that the number of patent claims, patent specification pa- ges, and inventors are able to reflect patent quality with the different degrees. The results and approaches of the study enlighten on the exploration and determination of early stage patent evaluation indicators, and these indicators are especially suitable to the SIPO data, and provide the reference for the study of patent asset value in the view of generalized fictitious economics.