本文使用1994—2012年的季度数据,研究我国中央银行独立性(CBI)和通货膨胀之间的关系。采用四个指标做为CBI的代理变量,两个指标做为通胀的代理变量,对CBI和通货膨胀的关系进行八次协整分析,最终发现两者之间仅存在一个协整关系,而且该脉冲反映图呈现u型,并且有持续性的影响。本文结论为:CBI与通货膨胀之间不存在长期稳定关系,所以提高CBI以实现低通胀率的做法并不恰当。最后,本文基于CBI是内生的角度对CBI提出了相关政策建议。
This paper uses the 1994- 2012 quarterly data, studies the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation. CBI using four indicators as a proxy variable, two indicators of inflation as a proxy variable,we analysis the relationship between CBI and inflation by eight cointegration equation, there is only one in our research. Also, the impluse-response figure showing U-shaped,this reflects a lasting impaction. The conclusion is that long-term stable relationship does not exist between CBI and inflation, so the method about increasing CBI to achieve low inflation rate will not be appropriate. Finally, this paper proposes policy recommendations based on the endogenous CBI.