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数据挖掘技术在水文预报中的应用及水文预报发展趋势研究
  • 期刊名称:水文,27(2):74-77,2007
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探;天文地球—地质学]
  • 作者机构:[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部水利工程学院,大连116024
  • 相关基金:十一五国家科技支撑计划(2007BAB28801);国家自然科学基金项目(50579095);大连市2007年科技计划项目(052021).
  • 相关项目:基于分段径流预报的梯级水电站汛期联合运行模型及其应用研究
中文摘要:

目前水文科学研究的热点是采用水文模拟途径,在确定水文变化基准期的基础上,利用流域水文模型还原人类活动影响期间的天然径流量,定量评价气候变化和人类活动对流域水资源变化的影响,得出气候变化及人类活动对流域水循环过程影响的响应规律和机理,其中应用最为广泛的流域水文模型是SWAT模型和MODFLOW模型。首先分析将SWAT模型与MODFLOW模型耦合进行地表水与地下水联合模拟的必要性,然后对实现这两种模型耦合中的单元转换等接口问题及框架结构作了重点研究。由于SWAT模型和MODFLOW模型模拟的最小计算单元分别为水文响应单元(HRU)和网格(CELL),使得要实现SWAT模型与MODFLOW模型的耦合必须首先完成HRU与CELL之间的转换,即实现SWAT与MODFLOW模型耦合的接口,因此提出了一种在Arc.SWAT2005环境下实现HRU与CELL转换的方法,给出了SWAT-MODFLOW耦合模型的框架结构,并将该方法应用到浑河与太子河流域,为其进行地表水与地下水联合模拟奠定基础。

英文摘要:

In recent years, water resources are increasingly affecting the global development of environment and economy. The temporal and spatial changes of water resources are directly dependent on the cognition of hydrological cycle laws. Watershed is the basic unit of natural water circulation, and the basic system for water re- sources development and utilization, water environment preservation, and water resources allocation and utiliza- tion. Based on the determination of the standard period of hydrological variation, the restoration of the natural runoff under the impact of human activities by the use of hydrological model through hydrology simulations, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of climate changes and human activities on watershed water sources varia- tion and the obtainment of responding regularity and mechanism of watershed water circulation to climate chang- es and human activities are hotspots of the present hydrology research. The most widely used hydrological mod- els are SWAT and MODFLOW. The necessity of coupling SWAT and MODFLOW to do co-simulation of sur- face water and groundwater is analyzed first, and then the interface problems, such as unit conversion and frame structure in the two models coupling are studied primarily. Because the smallest computational units of SWAT and MODFLOW are hydrologic response units (HRUs) and cells respectively, the conversion between HRU and CELL, that is the interface of SWAT and MODFLOW models coupling, must be implemented first in the SWAT and MODFLOW models coupling. Therefore, an HRU-CELL conversion method under ArcSWAT2005 and the frame structure of SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model is given. The HRU-CELL conversion method is applied to the co-simulation of surface water and groundwater in Hun_he River and Taizi River basins, and the effectiveness of the SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model in the water cycle simulations of large watersheds is verified to lay the foundation for the quantitative evaluation of the impact of climate changes and human activities on wa

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