中文摘要：

鉴于纯随机径流描述或确定性径流预报的水库（群）优化调度模型,未考虑径流预报及其不确定性,导致优化计算结果与水库实际运行情况存在较大差异。本文提出了一种利用后验的径流状态转移概率和径流预报的可预测性概率来描述径流预报及其不确定性的优化调度模型。依据二滩水电站径流及其预报的实际状况,考虑不同预见期的径流预报信息,建立了考虑径流预报及其不确定性的二滩水电站径流描述和优化调度模型。研究结果表明,考虑径流预报及其不确定性有效改善了已有的径流描述模型和发电优化调度模型,可明显地提高水电站发电效益。

英文摘要：

This paper presents an optimal operation model for hydropower station considering the inflow forecast and its uncertainty through a posterior transition probability and predictive probability. Taking the Ertan Hydropower Station as an example, the optimal operation model is formulated by uhilizing the runoff forecast with various lead-times as hydrological regime including the observed and predicted runoffs. The results demonstrate that the proposed optimal operation model improves the current models for both runoff and hydropower optimization, and yields higher hydropower production and reasonable storage hydrographs effectively.