中文摘要：

为更好地管理冷链中断风险，减少中断风险对冷链造成的损失。考虑Petri网可将复杂动态系统抽象表达成网图结构，通过库所和变迁动态展示事件发生的过程，冷链中断风险中成员对中断风险反应将对冷链造成影响，构建petri网冷链上下游中断风险分析模型进行分析，并结合冷链库存在冷链风险分析中的重要性，对核心冷链成员进行库存事件petri网建模，最后通过Extendsim仿真实现中断风险下库存的变化分析。结果：冷链中断风险下petri网建模分析可以很直观地反应上下游冷链成员受提前期和成本等的影响；而冷链中断风险下库存事件petri网模型可以用Extendsim进行仿真实验，得到需求变化大及提前期较小的企业容易发生中断风险，最后通过Extend—sim优化模块求出最小成本下冷库的最大库存以更好地控制中断风险。结论：petri网可以对冷链进行中断风险分析，有利于冷链企业对上下游冷链成员进行选择和管理，并可以进行中断风险的事前控制，进行中断风险的统计分析及预防中断风险带来的危害。

英文摘要：

To better manage the cold chain disruption risk, reduce the risk of the loss caused by cold chain, the paper assumed that the complex dynamic system in Petri net can be expressed by the graph structure, that dynamic display of the process of incident and the members of cold chain interruption risks affects cold chain reaction,the paper built a risk analysis model of Petri net chain. And based on the importance of cold chain inventory in cold chain risk analysis, the paper built the cold chain Petri net model of the core members of the events of inventory. Finally the paper analyzed the risk variation through Extendsim simulation under the change of the inventory. Results show that the analysis of Petri net model under cold chain disruption risk can visually reflect the cold chain upstream and downstream members in time and cost;And inventory under cold chain interruption risk event Petri net model with Extendsim built-in genetic algorithm optimization module, the biggest inventory within the minimum cost can be calculated. The conclusion is that Petri net can analyze the disruption risk quantitative, which help enterprises to carry out statistical analysis of the risk and prevent it.