中文摘要：

基于设备低劣化理论，分析了人字门船闸底枢低损劣化过程，得到底枢劣化是由有形磨损引起的，其故障率随时间呈非线性增加，低劣化值随时间变化呈指数型分布．以苏北航务管理处（以下简称“苏北处”）下属15座人字门船闸底枢的大修和维护统计资料为依据，分析确定了底枢低劣化数值模型的参数——底枢的原始价值、低劣化值、年正常运转费．采用低劣化数值法的静态和动态两种计算模型，计算底枢的经济更新周期，得出人字门船闸底枢经济合理的使用年限为13—15年．文中研究结果符合苏北处人字门船闸大修时底枢磨损的实际情况，该方法可供底枢维修更换决策和确定船闸大修周期参考借鉴．

英文摘要：

Based on the theory of equipment deterioration, this study analyzes the deterioration process of the bottom assembly. The results show that material attrition is the main inducement of bottom assembly wearing. As the time elapses, its failure rate is increasing nonlineady, and the inferior value is distributed in the form of exponential function. According to the actual survey data of the overhaul and maintenance costs of fifteen major locks＇ bottom assembly attached to Waterway Management Bureau of Grand Canal in North Jiangsu Province （WMBGCNJP） , the original value, inferior value and annual running cost of bottom assembly are determined. The economic life of the locks＇ bottom assembly is determined to be 13 - 15 years by using the static model and dynamic model having the inferior value method. Comparing with the wear loss of the bottom assembly in an overhaul period, this method is reliable and has reference value for decision determination of the cycle of lock overhaul. making of bottom assembly replacement and