中文摘要：

以1990年、2000年和2010年3个时期的土地利用覆被数据为基础,在Arcmap和Fragstats 3.4软件的支持下,利用景观格局指标分析了天山北坡的景观格局现状和动态变化,并利用相关性定性分析和主成分定量分析2种方法分析了引起这种变化的驱动力。结果表明,1天山北坡1990~2010年土地利用类型变化显著,荒漠、耕地、城乡建设用地面积不断增加,草地、水域以及林地面积都出现了不同程度的减少。2斑块形状总体趋向于不规则与复杂,景观的多样性指数和均匀度指数降低,各景观类型所占比例差异增大,景观斑块的破碎化程度增强。3在基于相关性分析的定性分析中,影响天山北坡景观格局变化的因素主要包括气候因子、人口因子以及经济因子;其中,气候因子主要影响着草地、水域、林地等天然土地利用类型的景观格局,而人口因子和经济因子主要影响着耕地以及城乡建设用地的景观格局动态变化;在基于主成分分析的定量分析中,自然驱动的贡献率小,人文驱动的贡献率大。

英文摘要：

Taking the Northern slope of the Tianshan Mountain as study area, with remote sensing images of 1990, 2000,2010 as information source, changes of data related with landscape pattern indices were analyzed using Arcmap and the landscape pattern analysis software Fragstats 3.4. Correlation analysis and Principal component analysis were applied for analyzing the drive of the changes. The primary conclusions were as follows; 1 Land use changes significantly, desert,farmland, urban and rural construction land increased; while grassland, water and forest area have suffered different degrees of reduction. 2 Patch shape tend to change irregularly and complexly overall; landscape diversity and evenness has decreased;the difference of each type of landscape increased; and the degree of fragmentation increased. 3 According to the correlation analysis, the factors of the landscape pattern changes include climatic factors, demographic factors and economic factors, among which climate factors impacts grassland, water, forest and other natural land use types landscape patterns mainly; while population factors and economic factors affects arable land and urban and rural construction land mainly.According to principal component analysis, the contribution of natural factors is small; and the contribution of human-driven is big.