中文摘要：

本文在传统的线性奥肯定律和平滑转换回归模型基础上,构建了一个非线性奥肯定律模型,结合国际油价的外部供给冲击,系统地考察了奥肯定律这一经验规律在我国的存在性和非线性。研究结果表明,传统的线性奥肯定律在我国已经失效,但呈现出明显的非线性特征,经济扩张和经济收缩对失业的影响具有截然不同的非对称效应。考虑到外部供给冲击的影响,奥肯定律会出现一定程度的偏移,而且呈现出线性与非线性特征的频繁转换。

英文摘要：

Based on the traditional linear Okun＇s law and smooth transition regression model,this paper established a nonlinear model of Okun＇s law,and systematically investigated the existence and nonlinearity of Okun＇s law in China with the international oil price shocks.The empirical results indicated that the Okun＇s law became invalid and presented nonlinearity in China and the impact of economic expansion and recession to unemployment exhibited an entire different asymmetric effect.Okun＇s law presented certain level of deviation and it shifted frequently between linearity and nonlinearity characteristics under the influence of external supply shocks.