中文摘要：

如何正确评价转型国家经济绩效一直是转型经济学研究的一个重点。经过研究发现，转型国家初期在不同的转型策略选择下出现了明显的绩效分又现象，而出现绩效分叉的主要原因可能是生产能力的差异。而在生产能力体系中，投资水平是最重要的。

英文摘要：

Based on fuzzy theory, the study focuses on the economic performance of transitional countries. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established to make empirical research on eight typicaI countries during 1994 to 2003. It shows distinctive breakout phenomenon by different reform path in the beginning of transition. The causes of performance breakout are discussed for the difference of production capacity which is induced by investment level.