中文摘要：

本文基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,利用1978年-2010年统计数据,对影响我国人均二氧化碳排放的因素进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国的经济活动人口比重、人均国民生产总值、能源消费结构、城市化水平、人均消费额和对外贸易度等因素,均对我国人均碳排放量具有正向的影响。而产业结构和工业能源效率对于碳排放量增长具有负向影响,它们对碳排放量的增加具有一定的抑制作用。此外,本文还基于向量误差修正模型VECM对变量之间的Granger长期因果关系进行了检验。研究结果表明：我国的能源消费结构、城市化水平、经济活动人口比重与人均碳排放量之间存在单向Granger因果关系。最后,本文基于研究的结果,从我国减少二氧化碳排放的角度,对我国发展低碳经济和节能减排提出了一些建议。

英文摘要：

Faced with increasingly serious environmental problems,we not only try to understand the the various driving forces resulting in environmental problems,but also should establish an model to accurately describe the relationship between environmental impact and driving forces.Prom aspects of the population,economic development level,energy intensity,energy consumption structure,industrial structure,urbanization etc.,this paper discusses the main factors affecting the per capita carbon emissions in China.And by using China’s data from 1978 to 2010,this paper extends STIRPAT model and conducts an empirical study on the main factors.The results show that：GDP per capita,energy structure,population,urbanization level,international trade division and energy consumption has a significant positive effect on carbon emission.The industrial structure and energy efficiency has a Negative impact on carbon emission.According to the above empirical results,this paper presents a policy recommendation to maximize the existing energy structure,industry structure,develop more low-carbon industry and its technological innovation.