中文摘要：

汇率改革以来,境内外市场的相互作用加强。通过对离岸人民币非交割远期(NDF)和即期汇率的因果关系检验表明:改革后,境内现汇市场显现出本土信息优势,表现为即期汇率引导1月和1年期NDF;1月期NDF引导即期汇率,1年期NDF不引导即期汇率,表明参与1月期NDF是以套期保值的投资者为主,1年期是投机者为主。

英文摘要：

The interaction between onshore and offshore market become stronger after foreign exchange reform, so the offshore market influence on onshore market must been paid attention.The empirical ccausality tests be- tween Non-deliverable Forward(NDF)and spot rate are done.Onshore foreign exchange market takes on lo- cal information advantage after reform from the granger cause from spot rate to one month and one year NDF. One month NDF granger cause spot rate and one year NDF does not granger cause spot rate,whic...