中文摘要：

通过货币政策的变动来预测股票市场的走势不仅是个人投资者,更是机构投资者不可或缺的分析工具,但从预测的实际效果来看,不同时期的预测准确度偏差不同。究竟货币供应量与股市走势之间的内在关系如何,正是本研究希望解决的问题。经过研究认为,这种预测体系仅仅在股市处于牛市和震荡市时有效,而当股市处于熊市时是无效的。

英文摘要：

China＇ s transfer payment system designed to achieve the equalization of public service has a very limited function in coordinating the economic development in different areas and minimizing their economic discrep- ancies. The games played by the local governments in the competition for obtaining transfer payment fund have caused the coexistence of fiscal reserve deficiencies and lack of efficiency. As the means to coordinate the fiscal re- lations between governments and the regional interests, the transfer payment system must serve the purpose of coor- dinating the economic developments in different areas and minimizing the regional economic discrepancies. We must make a systematic design in the modes, the forms and the funds allocation of transfer payment and have it gradually improved.