中文摘要：

本文结合在线口碑分析在线消费行为，通过探讨市场作用的动态性、口碑效应的非一致性与正负口碑的异质性对消费者购买决策的影响，建立基于在线口碑的消费预测模型，并用在线市场电子产品消费数据进行实证研究．结果表明该模型能够很好地预测在线新产品需求，为在线企业掌握需求动态，进行市场运营和管理提供营销建议。

英文摘要：

This study is to analyze online consumer behavior and establishes a consumer forecasting model based on online word of mouth, through discussing the dynamic nature of the market, the nonconformity of the word of mouth effect and the heterogeneity of positive and negative reputation on the purchase decision of con- sumers. Moreover, we conduct an empirical research by using the electronic product consumption data in online market. The results show that the model can well predict the demand of online new products, which helps online enterprises to master the dynamic demand and provides guidance for market operations and management.