本文通过引入企业家精神,研究了以生育率下降为特征的中国人口转变的影响。模型表明,人口转变不利于形成创新和创业的企业家精神,扩大了企业家和工人的收入差距,但对经济增长的影响取决于收入差距。当收入差距较大时,人口转变将抑制经济增长。结合我国经济的数值模拟和实证分析显示,当前人口转变不利于经济增长。本文的研究结论意味着政府必须重视人口转变对企业家精神的影响,及时采取有效措施,努力消除人口转变的负面效应。
This paper studies the effect of demographic transition on economic growth by highlighting the role of entrepreneurship.We find that demographic transition has negative influence on entrepreneurship and increases the income gap between entrepreneurs and workers.When the income gap between entrepreneurs and workers is large,demographic transition hinders economic growth.Both simulation and regression exercises provide evidence that China's demographic transition has begun to hinder growth recently.Our study suggests that it is of vital importance for government to pay attention to the relationship between demographic transition and entrepreneurship.