中文摘要：

铀的价格是影响我国“十二五”战略新兴核能产业发展的关键要素。为了准确了解铀远期价格和现货价格之间的规律，在协整研究的基础上，又进行了脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解。发现铀的远期价格与现货价格存在长期动态均衡，铀的市场价格传导富有效率，均衡短期偏离能够很快得到纠正。在价格波动传导方面，远期价格的波动对现货价格影响显著，反之则不成立。所以，铀价格波动主要来自于远期市场。研究结论表明，国际市场上铀的价格受远期市场的影响大于现货市场，铀的远期价格对现货价格具有价格发现作用。决策者可以根据这一结论适时决策。

英文摘要：

The price of uranium is a key factor which may affect the development of new strategic industry in twelve-five-year plan of China. To master the relationship between uranium＇ s long- term price and spot price, we do impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis on the basis of integration. We conclude that there is a long-standing equivalence between uranium＇ s long-term price and spot price ; the transmission of price volatility is efficient; temporary departure will be corrected quickly. For the transmission of price, long-term price has a significant effect on spot price, but the converse isn＇t true. Therefore, the violence of uranium price mainly comes from the long-term market, that is, uranium price is more affected by long-term market than spot market, so the long-term market is dominant to decide uranium price.